Fantasy Football 2013: Busts At Each Position
Last week, we discussed what players would be the “sleepers” or undervalued this year in fantasy football drafts.
We will now look at some of the players who are being projected too high — which are referred to as “busts.”
Most of these players will be familiar to normal fantasy football owners, unlike last week where we discussed some unknown players that will be successful.
With that being said, let’s look at the “busts” from each position.
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick – San Francisco 49ers
Just because Colin Kaepernick is cool, slick and the modern form of the quarterback, doesn’t mean that he is a valuable choice for your starting QB spot on your fantasy roster.
Many fantasy owners will pick up the young QB because of his playoff performances against the Green Bay Backers, Atlanta Falcons and even the loss vs. the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
But here is why you shouldn’t trust the guy who wears a Dolphins hat (which is a good reason to not get him in the first place).
The loss of his best wideout option in Michael Crabtree lessens Kaep’s value by an extreme amount. And while it does help that the 49ers have Anquan Boldin to fill his spot, Boldin didn’t break 1,000 yards last season and only had four touchdowns.
Not to mention, their first round pick from 2012, A.J. Jenkins, has looked like an undrafted free agent who doesn’t want to be there. (Writer’s Edit: A.J. Jenkins was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs for WR Jon Baldwin — not much better).
With no depth in their wideout position, tight end Vernon Davis has even seen some time at receiver — which doesn’t bode well for San Francisco.
Running Back: Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders
Most of the drafts that have occurred already are averaging RB Darren McFadden around the 2nd or 3rd round. I wouldn’t even waste a draft pick on this guy, in my opinion.
In the past two seasons, McFadden has only managed to play in 19 games — due to his numerous injuries.
And in the 19 games that he has played, McFadden has only managed to put up 1,320 yards and 6 touchdowns — which if you paid attention to Adrian Peterson last season, that is only half of the yards and touchdowns that Peterson had.
While I know that comparing Peterson and McFadden is not fair, I still think someone who only averaged half of the best running back in the league in two seasons, shouldn’t be picked just 15-20 picks later.
Especially because he can’t stay healthy!
Wide Receiver: Wes Welker – Denver Broncos
Will Wes Welker have a good season? Yes. Will Peyton Manning utilize Welker’s middle-field brilliance? Yes. But will Welker’s numbers fall? Definitely.
With Welker’s move to Denver this season, he will experience a downfall in his stat line. This is due to the presence of wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker — who both experienced success last season with the Broncos.
Unlike in New England, Welker won’t be the number one receiver and relied on to keep up the load.
Also, Peyton Manning likes to spread out the ball to different receivers (see: Brandon Stokley) — which means all the receivers will see equal opportunities.
In New England, Tom Brady targeted Welker an average of 11 times per game and 18 times in the red zone all season — these stats will certainly see a drop.
Welker is currently looking at an average of 4th round in most fantasy drafts. I wouldn’t want to take him for my team until maybe the 5th or 6th round. And in my opinion, I would stay away from all three of the Broncos receivers.
He will most likely go from a top-10 fantasy receiver down to top-20 — not bad, but not worth where he is projected.
Tight End: Kyle Rudolph – Minnesota Vikings
Don’t get me wrong, Kyle Rudolph’s nine touchdowns was really excellent last year. But I think his production falls a little bit going into the 2013-14 season.
Rudolph’s talent has definitely shown in his short career in the NFL, however, his consistency has been his biggest problem.
Last season, while he did have some great games, Rudolph had three games where he had no receptions and seven games where he only managed two or fewer points.
And now that the Vikings have brought in wide receivers Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson to help out Ponder in the passing game, you have to think that Rudolph will be targeted less.
With Adrian Peterson doing as well as he does at the goal line, will Minnesota target the young tight end in the red zone at all?
Rudolph has everything going against him in fantasy standards this season and I’d suggest moving past this “bust” while selecting your tight end.
Defense/Special Teams: Baltimore Ravens
So what does that mean for the Ravens? Bad news for the Ravens.
And while Baltimore won’t be awful on defense, I decided to go with a team who is ranked in the top 12 fantasy defense/special teams (since most leagues only draft twelve D/ST).
The reason why the Ravens won’t be as good as last year is simple — loss of production.
Here is the fantasy points that they will lose (the players’ names above) from last season — 6 interceptions, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, 16.5 sacks and one touchdown.
Yes, the Ravens get back star cornerback Ladarius Webb and drafted stud linebacker Arthur Brown, but they won’t be as good as last season. A lot rides on if Webb and linebacker Terrell Suggs can stay healthy this season.
No matter what, the Ravens will most likely drop a few fantasy points due to their offseason moves.
Kicker: Mason Crosby – Green Bay Packers
Like I said in my “sleepers” addition of our fantasy football 2013 preview, almost any kicker who is starting on an NFL team is a safe choice for your fantasy team.
But, take caution with Mason Crosby of the Green Bay Packers.
Crosby was the worst kicker in the league last year with a 21of 33 in field goal attempts. And while the kicker was 50 for 50 on his extra point attempts, his two missed field goals inside 39 yards just isn’t cutting it.
It is sad to see a guy who had a made-field goal percentage of 85.7 % and 78.6 % in 2010 and 2011, end up with only a 63.6 % in 2012-13.
Unless every kicker is taken (which shouldn’t happen in normal leagues) and you desperately need one, don’t take Mason Crosby.
Not only will he be fighting to make fantasy football squads, but he is now fighting for the job of Aaron Rodgers‘ cleanup act.